JAKARTA – Shares of PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) skyrocketed by an impressive 24.55%, reaching Rp 4,110 per share by 11:59 AM Western Indonesia Time (WIB) on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. This significant surge propelled BREN stock beyond the Rp 3,890 target price set by Henan Putihrai Sekuritas on May 26, 2026.
Despite this recent upward momentum, analysts compiled by Bloomberg have yet to revise their target prices for BREN. This comes as the stock has experienced a substantial year-to-date decline of 57.52%, or a fall of Rp 5,565 per share.
Nevertheless, according to research conducted by Dennis Tay, BREN continues to be recognized as one of Indonesia’s most promising new and renewable energy issuers. The company demonstrates robust long-term growth prospects, underpinned by the accelerating national energy transition initiatives.
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Dennis emphatically states that BREN holds the prestigious position as Indonesia’s largest geothermal player, boasting an installed capacity of approximately 989 MW in 2025. The company is actively pursuing aggressive expansion plans, targeting an impressive 2.3–2.8 GW by 2032.
This ambitious expansion strategy will be fueled by several key initiatives: optimizing existing assets, developing new greenfield geothermal projects in locations such as Hamiding (North Maluku) and South Sekincau (Sumatra), and strategically diversifying into wind energy projects, including Sidrap 2, Lombok, and Sukabumi.
A primary strength of BREN, as emphasized by Dennis, lies in the superior quality of its assets and its highly defensive contract structure. All of BREN’s geothermal assets are secured by long-term contracts with PLN, which acts as the sole off-taker, thereby ensuring consistent and stable revenue visibility.
“BREN’s business model closely resembles that of infrastructure, characterized by stable long-term cash flows, further bolstered by a high generation capacity of approximately 85% and a meticulously regulated tariff scheme,” Dennis elaborated in his comprehensive research report.
These inherent operational and contractual characteristics provide BREN with a resilient revenue profile, making it largely impervious to economic cycles and relatively insulated from the inherent volatility of energy commodity prices.
Henan Putihrai also concurs that BREN is strategically positioned to effectively capture the momentum of Indonesia’s energy transition. As per PLN’s roadmap, the installed capacity of new and renewable energy-based power plants is projected to increase significantly over the next decade, with a substantial portion deriving from geothermal and wind energy sources.
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Furthermore, the anticipated national electricity demand growth, projected at approximately 3.2% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) until 2034, serves as an additional potent catalyst for BREN’s ongoing expansion endeavors.
From a financial performance standpoint, BREN is confidently projected to demonstrate robust growth, with both revenue and EBITDA anticipated to increase by an impressive approximately 27% CAGR until 2030.
Moreover, Dennis underscored BREN’s remarkable EBITDA margin, which consistently exceeds 80%. This exceptional figure positions BREN among the highest-performing global geothermal players. This outstanding efficiency is directly attributable to the inherently low-cost structure typical of geothermal energy, which eliminates fuel costs and facilitates exceptionally high utilization rates.
Henan Putihrai Sekuritas had initially set a target price of Rp 3,890 per share for BREN. When the research was first published, Dennis maintained a “Buy” recommendation for BREN stock. However, considering Henan’s internal rating scale and the current market price of Rp 4,110, the recommendation has now been adjusted to “Hold.”
This revised valuation is firmly rooted in the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, incorporating a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. In Henan Putihrai’s expert view, BREN warrants trading at a premium valuation due to its unique characteristics as a crucial, long-term energy infrastructure asset.
“BREN is far more than just an energy issuer; it represents a sophisticated renewable energy infrastructure platform characterized by exceptionally defensive cash flow quality,” Dennis affirmed, highlighting the company’s distinct market position.
Despite these seemingly solid prospects, Henan Putihrai prudently advises investors of several inherent risks. These encompass the need for substantial capital expenditure, the intrinsic uncertainties associated with geothermal well exploration, potential delays in critical infrastructure development, and regulatory and permitting ambiguities.
Nevertheless, the formidable backing from the Barito Pacific Group, coupled with its long-term, stable contracts with PLN, are considered pivotal safeguards, effectively underpinning the long-term stability and resilience of BREN’s business operations.
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Looking towards the end of 2026, Henan projects BREN’s revenue to be in the range of US$806.7 million, with an anticipated net profit of US$208.3 million. For 2027, Dennis further estimates that BREN’s revenue could reach US$928.5 million and its net profit could climb to US$255.4 million, showcasing continued strong financial performance.
Summary
Shares of PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) surged 24.55% to Rp 4,110, surpassing Henan Putihrai Sekuritas’ target price of Rp 3,890, despite a substantial year-to-date decline. BREN is recognized as Indonesia’s largest geothermal player, with 989 MW in 2025, targeting 2.3–2.8 GW by 2032 through asset optimization, new geothermal projects, and wind energy diversification. The company’s strengths include high-quality assets and defensive long-term contracts with PLN, ensuring stable revenue.
BREN’s business model, similar to infrastructure, provides stable long-term cash flows and high operational efficiency, making it resilient to economic cycles. The company is strategically positioned to benefit from Indonesia’s energy transition, with projected revenue and EBITDA growth of approximately 27% CAGR until 2030. Henan Putihrai Sekuritas adjusted its recommendation to “Hold” based on the current market price, valuing BREN as a crucial renewable energy infrastructure platform. Despite risks like significant capital expenditure, strong backing from the Barito Pacific Group and stable contracts underpin its long-term stability.