Anticipated Price Rallies for Aluminum, Tin, and Nickel in Q3 2026

The robust rally in industrial metal prices, a significant trend since early 2026, is widely anticipated to extend its momentum well into the third quarter of the year.

This impressive surge in aluminum, tin, and nickel prices is being fueled by a dual catalyst: a rebound in global manufacturing activity coupled with persistent structural supply disruptions impacting several major producing nations.

Data from Trading Economics as of Friday (May 22, 2026) reveals that aluminum prices experienced a daily increase of 0.35%, reaching US$3,650 per ton. This daily gain contributes to a remarkable 47.67% surge year-to-date (YtD).

While tin prices saw a daily dip of 1.45% to US$53,248 per ton, their year-to-date performance remains exceptionally strong, boasting a 64.46% gain. Concurrently, nickel prices advanced 0.67% daily to US$18,880 per ton, marking a solid 21.26% increase YtD.

According to Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Futures, the fundamental impetus behind the industrial metal rally stems from the simultaneous recovery observed across the global manufacturing sector, particularly in economic powerhouses like China and the United States.

“The expansion of manufacturing PMI in China and the US has laid the primary foundation for the strengthening of the industrial metal complex since the start of the year,” Sutopo explained to Kontan.co.id. “This significant momentum converged with structural supply tightening, resulting in an aggressive upward push in prices.”

He further noted that as Q2 2026 commenced, market dynamics transitioned from being primarily driven by speculative sentiment to being profoundly influenced by real supply disruptions. For instance, aluminum prices surged, propelled by ongoing logistics crises and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which significantly impede trade routes originating from the Gulf region.

Meanwhile, tin prices reached new highs following the Indonesian government’s stricter enforcement measures against illegal mining operations in Sumatra. Global tin supply also remains under considerable pressure due to delays in resource audits subsequent to the closure of Myanmar’s Man Maw mine late last year.

Conversely, nickel prices began their ascent after the Indonesian government reduced mining production quotas, a strategic move aimed at ensuring spot price stability. This positive sentiment was further bolstered by scheduled periodic maintenance in the Weda Bay industrial area, which is projected to curtail capacity by approximately 10%–15%.

Sutopo highlighted that China and the electric vehicle (EV) sector continue to serve as the primary drivers of global industrial metal demand, albeit with varying degrees of impact across individual commodities. He elaborated that Beijing’s fiscal stimulus, implemented through the issuance of special local government bonds, has successfully underpinned aluminum demand for large-scale infrastructure projects.

“For both nickel and tin, the demand from the electric vehicle industry and green energy infrastructure in Asia remains robust, even as traditional consumption patterns in Europe show signs of stagnation,” Sutopo added.

Amid the prevailing high levels of global geopolitical uncertainty, Sutopo believes that tin stands out as the industrial metal with the most structurally compelling prospects. He elaborated that the tin market is experiencing extremely tight supply conditions, a consequence of stringent regulations in Indonesia combined with political hurdles in Myanmar. Simultaneously, demand from the burgeoning technology industry continues its upward trajectory.

“Tin is a critical component for soldering electronic circuits, powering AI data centers, and manufacturing within the semiconductor industry,” he stated. “Its supply characteristic is notably inelastic, making it highly susceptible to the most significant supply squeeze scenarios.”

Sutopo forecasts that tin prices will trade within a range of US$50,000–US$57,000 per ton in Q3 2026. The US$50,000 level is anticipated to establish a robust support area, primarily driven by the ongoing crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia and persistent supply impediments from Myanmar.

Meanwhile, aluminum prices are projected to fluctuate between US$3,450–US$3,850 per ton. He noted that the aluminum market still contends with the threat of a physical deficit, exacerbated by the sluggish recovery of refinery capacities in the Middle East. “Aluminum’s support level is established around US$3,450, primarily due to soaring energy and logistics costs,” he explained. “Conversely, the resistance level at US$3,850 could be tested if regional physical premiums continue their upward trajectory.”

As for nickel prices, they are forecasted to trade within a range of US$17,500–US$19,800 per ton. Sutopo elaborated that nickel exhibits a “high floor, heavy lid” characteristic. This implies a strong underlying price support but with relatively limited upside potential, largely attributable to substantial inventories held on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

He further added that the Indonesian government’s policy of tightening RKAB quotas has effectively maintained nickel price support around US$17,500 per ton, a level close to the marginal cost for high-cost producers. However, the resistance level at US$19,800 is anticipated to be challenging to breach unless unforeseen new supply chain disruptions emerge. Examples include impediments to sulfur imports for high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants, which are crucial suppliers of raw materials for electric vehicle batteries.

Sutopo concluded that as long as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist until the end of Q3 2026, industrial metal prices are likely to maintain their elevated levels. “Should a sudden geopolitical de-escalation occur, aluminum’s risk premiums would likely shrink the fastest,” he noted. “However, tin is projected to remain the most resilient, primarily because its supply scarcity is fundamentally structural and domestically driven.”