Kuya Food Express – JAKARTA. The Indonesian banking sector experienced a challenging trading day on Monday, May 18, 2026, with the majority of its stocks failing to close in positive territory. A confluence of global and domestic sentiments was identified as the primary driver behind this widespread decline.
At the close of trading, only PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) among the major banks managed to defy the negative trend, recording a modest gain of 0.41% to settle at Rp 6,125 per share.
In stark contrast, other banking giants collectively underperformed. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) saw the steepest correction among its peers, dropping 1.92% to Rp 3,060. Following suit, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) declined by 1.81% to Rp 3,800, while PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) experienced a 1.67% dip, closing at Rp 4,130.
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The performance of other state-owned (Himbara) banks mirrored this weakness. PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN) shares fell significantly by 5.22% to Rp 1,270, and PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BRIS) experienced an even sharper decline of 7.10% to Rp 1,700.
Among the second-tier banks, only PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) managed to post gains, rising by 0.90% to Rp 1,690. Conversely, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN) corrected by 3.41% to Rp 4,250, PT Bank Permata Tbk (BNLI) dropped 4.79% to Rp 3,180, and PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP) saw a 2.62% reduction, ending at Rp 1,300.
Andrey Wijaya, an analyst at RHB Sekuritas, attributed the day’s broad weakness in banking stocks to a confluence of factors. The market is closely monitoring potential foreign outflows following the recent MSCI and FTSE rebalancing, coupled with renewed pressure on the rupiah, which is nearing Rp 17,600 per US dollar.
This situation, Andrey explained to Kontan on Monday (May 18, 2026), fuels concerns that Bank Indonesia (BI) may maintain a high interest rate stance or adopt a more hawkish approach to safeguard rupiah stability. Furthermore, rising global oil prices and a prevailing risk-off sentiment among foreign investors have also contributed to the downward pressure on the banking sector.
Looking ahead this week, Andrey highlighted several key sentiments expected to influence banking stocks. These include the ongoing MSCI and FTSE rebalancing, the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors’ Meeting (RDG BI) decision on interest rates and rupiah stability, and movements in exchange rates and US Treasury yields.
Additionally, the trajectory of global oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions and the flow of foreign funds in the domestic stock market warrant close attention. Andrey suggested that the banking sector could experience a technical rebound if the pressure on the rupiah and foreign capital outflows subside.
This is especially plausible, Andrey noted, given that current valuations are starting to appear historically attractive.
Amidst market volatility and the prevailing foreign capital outflows, Andrey observed that investors typically favor banks with robust fundamentals, strong Current Account Savings Account (CASA), healthy liquidity, and appealing dividend yields. Consequently, he anticipates that shares of larger banks will likely exhibit a more defensive posture compared to their smaller counterparts.
Andrey’s top picks among banking stocks include BMRI, BBRI, and BBCA. He finds BBRI particularly appealing due to its already significant valuation correction, which positions it for a potential rebound. Meanwhile, BMRI offers an attractive combination of compelling valuation and high yield.
BBCA, on the other hand, is considered the prime choice for a ‘quality play’ during volatile market conditions. Nonetheless, Andrey also believes that second-tier and digital banks still present opportunities for a trading rebound, though their inherent high volatility makes them more suitable for investors with an aggressive risk profile.
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Summary
The Indonesian banking sector faced a widespread decline on May 18, 2026, driven by negative global and domestic sentiments, including foreign outflows and a weakening rupiah. While most major banks experienced losses, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) remained resilient, closing with a modest gain of 0.41%. Other institutions, such as BBRI, BBNI, and BMRI, saw notable corrections as investors reacted to pressure from potential central bank policy adjustments and global economic uncertainty.
Analysts suggest that the sector’s performance in the coming week will depend on the upcoming Bank Indonesia board meeting and fluctuations in the rupiah. Despite the current volatility, experts remain optimistic about banks with strong fundamentals and healthy liquidity. BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI are currently highlighted as top picks, offering defensive positioning or potential rebound opportunities for investors as market valuations become increasingly attractive.