Kuya Food Express JAKARTA. The performance of palm oil issuers is anticipated to slow down following the implementation of new policies governing natural resource (SDA) exports.
As previously reported, the Indonesian government, through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), is poised to manage natural resource exports. This decision is based on a new Government Regulation on Natural Resource Exports, which mandates a single-door export system and requires 100% of Natural Resource Export Proceeds (DHE) to be repatriated domestically.
DSI, now officially designated as a State-Owned Enterprise (SOE), will serve as the sole exporter for several strategic natural resource commodities.
Initially, the commodities to be managed by PT DSI include crude palm oil (CPO), coal, and ferrous alloy.
The phased implementation of this single-door export policy is set to begin on June 1, 2026, with full implementation targeted for January 1, 2027.
Several CPO issuers have responded to this significant policy. For instance, PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) stated that it has not yet received an official copy of the Natural Resources Export Government Regulation.
Consequently, AALI’s Director and Corporate Secretary, Tingning Sukowignjo, noted that the company is still unaware of the detailed provisions stipulated in the new policy.
“Therefore, the company is not yet in a position to provide a more detailed response or comprehensively assess the impact of this policy’s implementation on the company,” she stated in an information disclosure on May 29, 2026.
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Tingning emphasized that in conducting its business activities, AALI is committed to upholding good corporate governance principles.
“Furthermore, we will comply with applicable laws and regulations while continuously monitoring the development of this policy,” she added.
PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk (SGRO) has expressed its support for the policy. However, given the high volatility in the global palm oil market, SGRO stresses that the transition period in the second half of 2026 must be managed with extreme caution.
SGRO Director Eris Ariaman highlighted that PT DSI’s operational readiness, system infrastructure, and market risk mitigation capacity are crucial prerequisites. This is vital to ensure the certainty of existing international supply contracts, prevent penalties due to document delays, and maintain the stability of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) prices at the farmer level, thereby fostering a conducive palm oil business environment.
SGRO projects that its revenue and operating profit will remain stable, as the company’s sales volume primarily targets the domestic market, which is not expected to experience a massive decline in volume.
However, net profit may experience slight pressure on margins due to the introduction of new administrative or agency (handling) fees from the export SOE. Cash flow also has the potential for a slowdown in working capital turnover during the second half of 2026.
“This is attributed to a potential time lag in the one-door export document verification process before the DHE can be disbursed to the company’s buyer accounts,” he explained in an information disclosure dated May 29, 2026.
Luthfi Novardiansyah, a Research Associate at Panin Sekuritas, observed that as the single-door commodity export policy takes effect from June 1, issuers with higher export exposure are likely to be more impacted than those focused on domestic sales.
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“Based on the 2025 financial year, CPO issuers with high export sales exposure include SMAR at 41%, STAA at 35%, and AALI at 36%,” he told Kontan on Tuesday, June 2, 2026.
Abida Massi Armand, a Fundamental Analyst at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, stated that during the transition phase from June 1 to December 31, 2026, the impact is expected to be limited, as exports will remain normal with no additional costs.
Real risks are anticipated to emerge when DSI fully becomes the sole exporter from January 1, 2027, potentially putting pressure on Average Selling Prices (ASP).
Even a Rp100,000 per ton increase in operational costs could erode 2027–2028 profits by approximately 1–4%. “AALI is the issuer most exposed to this policy, with around 36% of its sales coming from exports,” he remarked to Kontan on Tuesday.
Abdul Azis Setyo Wibowo, Equity Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, believes that the current DSI scheme is primarily administrative. If this scheme remains unchanged, it should have no impact on the ASP of palm oil issuers.
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“However, if there are future changes in the pricing scheme or other factors that could influence sales, then SIMP and AALI could be most significantly impacted, given their relatively high export proportions,” he noted on Tuesday.
Luthfi also pointed out that, beyond the DSI issue, the CPO sector benefits from a positive catalyst: the mandatory B50 biodiesel implementation, upgraded from B40, which takes effect on July 1, 2026.
This policy is expected to increase domestic CPO absorption and tighten global market supply, potentially keeping CPO prices at a high level for the remainder of 2026.
Conversely, the CPO sector also faces negative sentiment from the revised Natural Resources DHE policy, which could limit company cash flow flexibility by restricting Rupiah conversion to a maximum of 50%, down from the previous 100%.
“CPO issuers are also confronting the El Nino phenomenon in the second half of 2026, which threatens to depress palm oil productivity due to low rainfall and increased drought conditions,” he elaborated.
Abida views the performance outlook for palm oil issuers for the rest of 2026 as constructive, albeit uneven.
Positive sentiments include high CPO prices, tight global supply, and the push for B50 biodiesel. Negative sentiments, however, encompass DSI cost uncertainty, price volatility, and the weakening of the rupiah.
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“The standout CPO issuers this year are those with younger plantations, specifically DSNG and TAPG,” he revealed.
On the other hand, Abida attributed the recent decline in CPO issuer stocks over the past month to general market factors, such as the decline in the IHSG, foreign fund outflows, the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar, and MSCI and FTSE rebalancing. In other words, the drop in CPO stocks is not solely due to the establishment of DSI.
“With maintained fundamentals and the biodiesel catalyst, CPO stocks have selective potential for recovery,” he affirmed.
Azis highlighted that the current clarity regarding the DSI scheme and the absence of changes are key sentiments for palm oil issuers. Any alteration in DSI’s authority, such as its ability to regulate prices, could potentially pressure revenues.
Nevertheless, DSI’s presence plays a positive administrative role by enhancing foreign exchange oversight. This is crucial as DSI can tighten control over foreign exchange that should be repatriated to Indonesia but is instead held in other countries.
Azis believes the current decline in CPO stocks is still linked to the one-door export policy, particularly concerns over scheme clarity that might lead to reduced revenue and margins. This apprehension could also contribute to a decline in ASP.
Azis recommends a “trading buy” for TAPG, with a target price of Rp 1,880 per share.
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Summary
The Indonesian government is introducing a single-door export policy through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), which will serve as the sole exporter for strategic commodities like CPO starting in 2027. This initiative aims to centralize export management and ensure full repatriation of export proceeds. While some industry players are awaiting further details on administrative procedures, there is concern regarding potential operational costs, impacts on profit margins, and possible delays in cash flow during the transition phase.
Despite these uncertainties, analysts suggest that the sector remains supported by strong fundamentals and the upcoming B50 biodiesel mandate, which is expected to boost domestic demand and support CPO prices. While companies with significant export exposure face higher risks, experts note that recent stock declines are influenced by broader market conditions rather than solely by the DSI policy. Investors are advised to remain cautious as they monitor future developments in the DSI’s authority and its potential influence on pricing schemes.