Kuya Food Express JAKARTA. The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is anticipated to remain under significant pressure following the long weekend holiday.
Persistent global and domestic sentiments are projected to weigh heavily on the market during Monday’s trading session (May 18, 2026). These factors range from the impact of MSCI index rebalancing and ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East to the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar.
On Wednesday (May 13) at the close of trading, the IHSG dipped 1.98% to settle at 6,723.32. Concurrently, foreign investors recorded a substantial net sell of IDR 1.53 trillion.
Herditya Wicaksana, Head of Retail Research at MNC Sekuritas, indicated that the stock market is still overshadowed by a combination of external and internal factors that are fueling selling pressure. “The looming sentiments include the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the potential for foreign outflow following the MSCI rebalancing, and the movement of the rupiah against the US dollar,” he explained.
Pressure on the IHSG is also being driven by the results of the quarterly MSCI index review, which led to several Indonesian stocks being delisted from both the MSCI Global Standard Index and the Global Small Cap Index. This situation has prompted adjustments in foreign investor portfolios and consequently heightened market volatility.
Despite the persistent foreign selling, Alrich Paskalis Tambolang, Equity Research Analyst at Phintraco Sekuritas, believes that the emerging pressure has, so far, been relatively more contained than initially feared by market participants. “The estimated foreign outflow was not as substantial as initial projections, primarily because a significant portion of the market had already anticipated MSCI’s move,” Alrich stated.
He further added that Indonesia’s continued standing as a key component of the emerging market group provides a crucial positive sentiment for investors. This status is seen as instrumental in mitigating deeper selling pressure within the domestic market.
From a technical standpoint, Alrich observed that the MACD indicator still displays a widening negative histogram, while the stochastic RSI is moving towards the oversold area. This confluence of technical signals suggests that bearish pressure remains quite strong in the short term for the IHSG.
Phintraco Sekuritas forecasts that the IHSG is likely to test the support area ranging from 6,700 to 6,650. Meanwhile, Herditya projects the IHSG to trade within a support range of 6,682 and a resistance of 6,789 for the early week trading session. He cautioned that the weakening trend remains vulnerable to continuation unless new positive sentiments emerge to effectively drive investor buying interest.
For today’s trading, MNC Sekuritas recommends that investors monitor several stocks, including DEWA, INDY, and WIFI.
Summary
The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is expected to face continued selling pressure during Monday’s trading session due to a combination of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a weakening rupiah, and foreign outflows triggered by the MSCI index rebalancing. Following a significant 1.98% decline in the previous session, market analysts highlight that technical indicators, including the MACD and stochastic RSI, suggest that bearish trends may persist in the short term.
Despite these challenges, some analysts note that the selling pressure has been more contained than anticipated as investors had already factored in the MSCI adjustments. While Phintraco Sekuritas projects the index to test support levels between 6,650 and 6,700, MNC Sekuritas advises monitoring specific stocks such as DEWA, INDY, and WIFI. Indonesia’s continued inclusion in emerging market indices remains a key factor that may help mitigate more severe declines.