The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) has asserted that implementing a windfall tax on extractive companies holds the potential to boost Indonesia’s state revenue by trillions of rupiah annually. However, this promising prospect is currently “on hold” by the government, as revealed by Celios researcher Jaya Darmawan during a discussion in Central Jakarta on Thursday, April 30, 2026.
A windfall tax is defined as an additional tax imposed on unexpected corporate profits, often resulting from sudden surges in global commodity prices driven by geopolitical dynamics. Importantly, this tax is not levied because a company has achieved excessive profits through superior performance. Jaya emphasized that when an unforeseen increase in net profit occurs, the state should also benefit from it, clarifying that this approach does not constitute “double taxation.”
Jaya highlighted that the windfall tax concept is already in practice in several other countries, including the United Kingdom, Italy, and India. He specifically pointed to the UK as an early adopter, where the tax was first implemented on energy companies and applied in a tiered manner. Initially set at 25 percent, the rate was subsequently increased to 38 percent in 2024. The UK, Jaya noted, strategically utilized these tax revenues to stabilize its fiscal position by reducing deficits and providing subsidies to vulnerable communities.
Delving into potential revenues for Indonesia, Jaya provided detailed calculations. Based on an assumed windfall tax rate of 25 percent on exports and an exchange rate of Rp 17,324 per US dollar, a windfall tax on unexpected profits from coal companies alone could contribute up to Rp 66 trillion to state revenue each year. This significant projection underscores the substantial financial impact such a policy could have.
Beyond coal, Jaya also projected considerable income from the nickel sector, estimating potential state revenue of up to Rp 14 trillion per year. He clarified that not all nickel production is currently utilized for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing or broader energy transition projects. Consequently, Jaya argued, production not earmarked for these energy transition initiatives should also be subject to a windfall tax. With an estimated total production of around 2.2 million tons annually, Jaya calculated that approximately 1.8 million tons—the vast majority—has not yet undergone downstream processing. Assuming a windfall tax rate of 10 percent on this segment, he estimates the Rp 14 trillion annual revenue potential from nickel companies. This potential tax revenue, he stressed, should be harnessed by the state to achieve crucial fiscal balancing in the face of increasing financial pressures.
In addition to the windfall tax, Jaya advocated for imposing a tax on Indonesia’s 50 wealthiest individuals. These individuals collectively possess a staggering Rp 4,600 trillion in wealth, with the majority dominating the country’s extractive sectors. By implementing a modest 2 percent tax on these super-rich individuals, Indonesia could potentially generate an additional Rp 93 trillion in tax revenue annually, further solidifying the nation’s financial standing.
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Summary
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) argues that implementing a windfall tax on Indonesia’s extractive industries could significantly boost state revenue. By taxing unexpected corporate profits from coal and nickel exports that result from global commodity price surges, the government could secure trillions of rupiah annually. This policy, already adopted by countries like the UK, aims to stabilize the national fiscal position without constituting double taxation.
Beyond commodity-based taxes, Celios proposes a two percent wealth tax on Indonesia’s 50 wealthiest individuals, who predominantly control the extractive sector. This measure could generate an additional Rp 93 trillion each year, further strengthening the state’s financial capacity. These combined strategies are intended to provide essential fiscal balancing to manage rising financial pressures effectively.