MDKA Shares Plunge 13% Ahead of Private Placement: Price Outlook Explained

Kuya Food Express JAKARTA. Shares of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) experienced a significant decline, with the stock price plummeting. As of Friday, May 8, 2026, MDKA’s stock price had fallen by 13.13%, settling at Rp 2,780 per share.

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In a related development, the prominent mining company is preparing to undertake a major corporate action: a Capital Increase Without Pre-emptive Rights IV (PMTHMETD IV), commonly known as a private placement. This strategic move involves the issuance of up to 2,447,298,377 new shares, which represents a maximum of 10% of the company’s total fully paid-up capital, each with a par value of Rp 20.

To proceed with this substantial private placement, MDKA is required to secure approval from its General Meeting of Shareholders (GMS). The company has scheduled this crucial GMS for June 11, 2026, where shareholders will vote on the proposed action.

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The capital injection obtained from this private placement will be strategically allocated. A portion, specifically 30% of the total funds, will be designated to bolster the working capital needs of both the company and its affiliated group entities.

The remaining funds from the private placement are earmarked for the broader business development initiatives of MDKA and its group. This comprehensive plan includes, but is not limited to, capital expenditure, the acquisition of shares, the purchase of assets, and/or equity participation. These investments will be channeled into one or more companies operating in industries that are directly relevant to or aligned with MDKA’s core business activities, ensuring strategic growth.

Regarding the execution price for the issuance of these new shares under the private placement, Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) regulations stipulate that the new MDKA shares must be offered at a minimum of 90% of the average closing price of MDKA shares over 25 consecutive trading days on the regular market. This calculation is based on the period immediately preceding the application date for the listing of the new shares. This regulatory framework suggests a potential price for the new MDKA shares of Rp 3,284 per share, which is notably higher than the price observed in the secondary market on Friday, May 8, 2026.

Interestingly, despite the recent dip in stock price, a review of analyst recommendations compiled by Bloomberg reveals a predominantly positive sentiment. The majority of analysts maintain a “buy” recommendation for MDKA shares.

According to Bloomberg data, a total of 22 analysts have provided coverage and reviews for MDKA stock. Among these, an overwhelming 21 analysts recommend a “buy” rating for MDKA shares, with only a single analyst opting for a “hold” recommendation. The collective average target price for MDKA, derived from these 22 analysts, stands at Rp 4,069.17 per share. This robust target implies a significant potential upside of 46.4% based on Bloomberg’s analyst consensus.

Further supporting this optimistic outlook, specific research reports highlight strong individual targets. DBS Bank, through analyst Eun Young Lee, issued a report on May 6, 2026, setting a target price of Rp 4,300. Additionally, Citi analyst Ryan Davis has provided a “buy” recommendation for MDKA shares, forecasting an even higher target price of Rp 5,100 per share.

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Summary

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) shares recently dropped 13.13% to Rp 2,780 amid preparations for a private placement of up to 2.45 billion new shares. The company plans to utilize these funds to support working capital, business development, asset acquisitions, and equity participation within its core industries. Shareholders are scheduled to vote on this proposal during a General Meeting of Shareholders on June 11, 2026.

Despite the recent stock price decline, market sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with 21 out of 22 analysts recommending a “buy” rating. Analysts from firms such as DBS and Citi have set significant target prices, projecting an average potential upside of over 46%. This optimistic outlook persists even as the regulatory minimum execution price for the new shares currently sits above the recent market trading value.

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